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Australian dollar and commodities rout not over

au.investing.com/analysis/australian-dollar-and-commodities-rout-not-over-200515195
Australian dollar and commodities rout not over
By David Llewellyn-Smith   |  Jul 11, 2022 09:52
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AUD/USD
-1.76%
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EEM
-2.47%
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WMT
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LCO
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GLEN
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DXY broke out last week though eased Friday:

 

AUD is resisting the breakout for now. Good luck with that:

Brent rebounded:

Metals lol:

Miners (LON:GLEN) lol:

EM stocks (NYSE:EEM) hung on:

The best leading indicator for risk in the world, EM junk (NYSE:HYG), shows no signs of turning:

Treasury yields have popped following oil:

Stocks are trying the bear market bounce:

Yawn. I still don’t buy it. The same dynamic is in play that has killed every bear market bounce in a hurry. Oil leads it and before you know it the Fed is being pushed to hike some more, ending the bounce.

This is made worse not better by any Chinese recovery.

As well, the fact remains that US financial conditions are still not restrictive. Nowhere as tight as they were in the 2015 and 2018 commodity busts:

Is it any wonder jobs are still plentiful:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.

…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 68,000, from +436,000 to +368,000, and the change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.

Some job cuts have started:

But wake me up when we start to see 50k headcount cuts at Walmart (NYSE:WMT) etc.

Until then the Fed tightens and AUD falls with commodities.

Australian dollar and commodities rout not over
 

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Australian dollar and commodities rout not over

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