AUD/USD – Wednesday, July 8th, 2015
The Australian dollar hasn’t had its best week, falling sharply from above the key 0.77 level to a new six year low below 0.74 in the last 24 hours. The AUD/USD is presently trading around the 0.7450 and trying to stay within reach of the 0.75 level. A few times last week, the AUD/USD tested the key support level at 0.76 and enjoyed some solid support before it failed. Throughout last week, the Australia dollar was starting to feel some selling pressure from the 0.77 level, and it had its eyes firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76. A couple of weeks ago, the AUD/USD fell sharply lower below 0.77; however, it found solid support from the long term support level at 0.76. This level has provided solid support throughout most of this year, so it is quite significant that it has now been strongly broken.
A few weeks ago, it surged higher from below 0.77 up to a three week high; however, it ran straight into resistance at the key 0.7850 level, which has performed this role several times this year. Throughout this time, it also spent most of its time trading quite steady around the 0.7750 level, whilst receiving solid support from 0.77. Over the last month, the resistance level at 0.7850 has played a major role, and continues to place selling pressure down on the AUD/USD. Throughout this same period, it has been enjoying rock solid support from the long term support level at 0.76, which has allowed it to rebound strongly back up to above 0.78 on more than one occasion.
Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fell sharply from a four month high above 0.8150 down to the key support level at 0.76. This level has been a significant level for a couple of months, and has propped the Australian dollar up on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, as it wasn’t so long ago that the AUD/USD was in a solid medium term up trend, having broken through the key 0.7850 level and achieved the four month high above 0.8150. For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded within a wide trading range between the support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year, in February, that range was tighter, with the support level higher at 0.77. Throughout this period, it experienced reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels, with very few excursions beyond the levels.
(Daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)
AUD/USD July 7 at 23:40 GMT 0.7445 H: 0.7501 L: 0.7398
AUD/USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.7400 | — | — | 0.7850 | 0.8150 | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Wednesday, the Australian dollar is trading in a narrow range right around 0.7450 after recently falling sharply to a six year low below 0.74. Current range: trading right around 0.7450.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 0.7400.
• Above: 0.7850 and 0.8150.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for AUD/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for AUD/USD has moved back below 60%, as the AUD/USD has dropped to a new six year low below 0.74. The trader sentiment is in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 23:01 (Tue) UK RICS House Price Balance (Jun)
- 23:50 (Tue) JP M2 Money Supply (Jun)
- 23:50 JP Key Machinery Orders (May)
- 12:30 CA Building permits (May)
- JP Economy Watchers Survey (Jun)