If you’re looking to understand what drove Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares to a record one-day loss of market cap last Monday, look no further. Jeffrey Emanuel wrote up the definitive analysis last weekend:
“DeepSeek’s recent efficiency breakthrough, achieving comparable model performance at approximately 1/45th the compute cost, suggests the entire industry has been massively over-provisioning compute resources.”
“Massive over-provisioning” as we have seen over the past couple of years, however, is nothing new. In fact, as Jim Chanos points out, it may be a defining characteristic of an asset bubble.
The difference this time, of course, is that this may be just the latest in an “age of bubbles,” as David Cahn puts it.
Even the most iconic firm founded on the premise that passive investing is best admits that price-insensitivity today could be especially costly.
“Vanguard’s model implies absolute catastrophe for those who invest in large U.S. growth stocks — the kind currently dominating the market. The firm sees them losing somewhere between 20% and 40% of their value in real or constant dollars over the next 10 years,” reports MarketWatch.
As I have pointed out before, this is likely one reason corporate insiders as a group have never been more bearish than they are today.
Bloomberg reports, “The insider buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988, according to the Washington Service.”
