Today sees the RBA interest rate announcement with the central bank likely to leave rates unchanged at 1.50%. However, recent reports are suggesting that the GDP data to follow the central bank announcement is going to softer than expected. GDP for the last quarter is forecast to be higher at 0.4%, which now looks unlikely according to various news sources.
The central bank has forecast an even bigger rise in GDP with a growth of 0.6% which sounds a little over ambitious considering the recent poor data and the risk of a Chinese economic slowdown continuing.
If we do see softer numbers, we could expect AUDUSD to break below the 0.7050 support, however if the number isn’t as bad as what investors were expecting we could see bullish move back above the trendline support.
Retail traders are positioned short here with stops likely above the daily highs around 0.7250. A break above these will likely push the AUDUSD price north towards the 0.7400 resistance zone.
One chart that could benefit from AUD strength is GBPAUD. The chart currently sits at weekly highs and looks likely to push lower if bearish price action agrees.
A clear weekly close below the supply zone will suggest further downside back into the key demand zone around 1.7200.