Originally published by AxiTrader
The upward momentum in the Trumponomics rally has stalled over the course of March after the physical S&P 500 made a new record high earlier this month at 2400.98.
But with a close of 2365 last night, the S&P is only marginally lower than this record high when you look at the grand scheme of things. It's a loss of just a little less of 1.5%.
But as we wait for the Fed decision tomorrow morning Australian time it is worth considering the current setup for the S&P 500 and the outlook on the charts.
Recall last week I highlighted a very long term chart from the start of this bull market back in 2009 which suggests prices for the S&P might be approaching a level where the index makes a significant top.
That's the very large picture view and may take week's or months to play out. Indeed the market now reminds of gold when it was up near $1900 back in 2011.
Closer to hand however when I drill down to a more relevant time frame for AxiTraders - the daily charts - there are emerging signs that a break of 2350 could see a further run lower.
My system - as readers and viewers of my daily videos know - is short. And I'm targeting a move to the 38.2% retracement of the Trumponomics optimism rally which comes in around 2258.
But that extension needs to see 2350 break first. That appears to be the level that many traders are watching and talking about my research suggests.
Naturally the Fed, what they do, what they say, and how they say it is going to be very important for the price action on the S&P and other stock indexes across the planet. So we'll know within 24 hours if stocks are going to run a little lower or if this pullback from the record high has been the pause that refreshes the rally. In which case my system's short will get covered at some point.
Have a great day's trading.