Currency Forecast

Hawks and doves might both be satisfied with yesterday's Fed minutes. Stressing conditionality seems inconsistent with March cut expectations, but the openness to a QT exit and concerns about the...

The EUR/USD’s sluggish start to the year continued in the first half of Wednesday’s session, with investors showing a preference for the US dollar ahead of key data releases from the...

The dollar jumped yesterday as investors started to return from the long Christmas break. Markets are unwinding some dovish bets, and questioning stretched equity valuations, ultimately favoring...

The prevailing market consensus points toward lower interest rates in developed countries next year, with both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) anticipated to make rate...

The EUR/USD, while experiencing a somewhat lackluster 2023, is on track to end the year with a modest 2.3% gain. Despite facing headwinds from consistently poor economic data in the Eurozone, the...

The Bank of Japan did not give in to market pressure and kept its dovish guidance intact. However, the wording on the economic and inflation outlook paves the way for a hike in the second quarter in...

The US Fed's signal of potential rate cuts next year weakened the US dollar, which closed the week in the 102 band. Despite the dollar's decline, expectations for a rate cut in March, currently at...

The dollar is recovering some ground after the pushback from Fed officials against rate-cut bets. However, the dovish Dot Plot may work as an anchor for rates and keep the dollar soft into the end of...

In a somewhat surprising move, the Fed has acknowledged recent disinflation trends and poured gasoline on the fire of easing expectations for 2024. The news has understandably been greeted by global...

The Fed decision is set to test market expectations of 125 basis point rate cuts in 2024, producing potential trading opportunities on GBP/USD or USD/JPY. The rate decision is a formality but the Fed...

It is now a very consensus view that the Fed will push back against rate cut expectations. We expect the Dot Plots will show only 50bp of cuts in 2024. Still, markets may feel less comfortable about...

The US dollar bounced back, ending a three-week decline, thanks to strong employment data and interest rate projections. Key economic indicators and central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB, and...

As macro investors, we are often inundated with flashy headlines, and recently Japan has been front and center.Yet with all this noise, it’s easy to miss the forest for the...

The big yen rally has been exacerbated by positioning factors, but markets may keep speculating on a BoJ December hike unless Japanese officials protest against hawkish bets before the meeting. A...