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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.9x - 2.1x | 2.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.6x - 1.8x | 1.7x |
| Fair Value | Rp1,491 - Rp1,710 | Rp1,601 |
| Upside | -7.1% - 6.5% | -0.3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk | ULTJ | IDX:ULTJ |
| PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk | AALI | IDX:AALI |
| PT Sumber Tani Agung Resources Tbk | STAA | IDX:STAA |
| Indofood Agri Resources Ltd. | 5JS | SGX:5JS |
| PT Diamond Food Indonesia Tbk | DMND | IDX:DMND |
| PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. | SSMS | IDX:SSMS |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ULTJ | AALI | STAA | 5JS | DMND | SSMS | |||
| IDX:ULTJ | IDX:AALI | IDX:STAA | SGX:5JS | IDX:DMND | IDX:SSMS | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.4% | 4.6% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 8.2% | 23.6% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 10.3% | -3.6% | 3.1% | -6.7% | 14.8% | 38.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.9% | 5.2% | 21.8% | -0.2% | 6.0% | -1.7% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 19.9% | 9.9% | 25.5% | 14.5% | 5.2% | 23.5% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.0% | 8.1% | 19.8% | 13.2% | 5.9% | 11.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.2% | 8.2% | 29.5% | 21.9% | 4.3% | 16.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 16.2% | 8.2% | 29.5% | 21.9% | 4.1% | 16.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.46x | 0.50x | 1.57x | 1.09x | 0.71x | 2.01x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 6.1x | 5.3x | 5.0x | 17.3x | 15.1x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.73x | 0.49x | 1.47x | 0.35x | 0.77x | 1.43x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.50x | 1.09x | 1.57x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.31x | 2.82x | 3.56x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.90x | 2.00x | 2.10x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 10,521,651 | 10,521,651 | 10,521,651 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 20,001,687 | 21,054,407 | 22,107,127 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,614,265) | (5,614,265) | (5,614,265) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 14,387,422 | 15,440,142 | 16,492,863 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 9,525.0 | 9,525.0 | 9,525.0 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,510.49 | 1,621.01 | 1,731.53 | |||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,510.49 | 1,621.01 | 1,731.53 | 1,605.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -5.9% | 1.0% | 7.9% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ULTJ | AALI | STAA | 5JS | DMND | SSMS | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,947,987 | 10,881,507 | 10,099,696 | 16,732,459 | 6,803,937 | 20,901,890 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,434,322 | 3,236,012 | 1,318,490 | 5,945,500 | 595,695 | 1,180,282 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 132,526 | 410,417 | 16,100 | 2,275,052 | 66,826 | 550,420 | |
| (-) Debt | (37,848) | (3,189,537) | (1,517,090) | (7,874,434) | (5,429) | (7,082,088) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (87,688) | (560,144) | (431,262) | (11,565,212) | (28,367) | (262,879) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 15,389,299 | 10,778,255 | 9,485,934 | 5,513,365 | 7,432,662 | 15,287,625 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 10,398.2 | 1,924.7 | 10,903.4 | 1,395.9 | 9,468.4 | 9,525.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1,480.00 | 5,600.00 | 870.00 | 3,949.67 | 785.00 | 1,605.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12,342.73 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,480.00 | 5,600.00 | 870.00 | 0.32 | 785.00 | 1,605.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | SGD | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 12,342.73 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |