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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.4x - 2.6x | 2.5x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 2.3x - 2.5x | 2.4x |
| Fair Value | Rp1,173 - Rp1,407 | Rp1,290 |
| Upside | -1.9% - 17.8% | 7.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| PT Hillcon Tbk | HILL | IDX:HILL |
| PT Madusari Murni Indah Tbk | MOLI | IDX:MOLI |
| Tay Ninh Rubber Joint Stock Company | TRC | HOSE:TRC |
| Binh Dien Fertilizer Joint Stock Company | BFC | HOSE:BFC |
| PT Lautan Luas Tbk | LTLS | IDX:LTLS |
| PT Samator Indo Gas Tbk | AGII | IDX:AGII |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| HILL | MOLI | TRC | BFC | LTLS | AGII | |||
| IDX:HILL | IDX:MOLI | HOSE:TRC | HOSE:BFC | IDX:LTLS | IDX:AGII | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 4.0% | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 6.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 60.9% | -0.6% | 21.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 8.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.8% | -2.3% | 32.2% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.7% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 16.4% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 17.4% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 20.7% | 4.9% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 16.3% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.8% | 7.7% | 28.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 16.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.4% | 6.9% | 28.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 15.4% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.98x | 0.83x | 2.78x | 0.29x | 0.20x | 2.40x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 45.1x | 11.9x | 9.7x | 4.6x | 4.2x | 15.6x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.20x | 0.36x | 3.27x | 0.25x | 0.17x | 1.27x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.20x | 0.83x | 2.78x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.30x | 2.75x | 3.59x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.38x | 2.51x | 2.63x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 2,881,286 | 2,881,286 | 2,881,286 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,857,894 | 7,218,836 | 7,579,778 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,245,604) | (3,245,604) | (3,245,604) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,612,290 | 3,973,232 | 4,334,174 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,066.7 | 3,066.7 | 3,066.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 1,177.92 | 1,295.62 | 1,413.32 | |||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,177.92 | 1,295.62 | 1,413.32 | 1,195.00 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -1.4% | 8.4% | 18.3% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HILL | MOLI | TRC | BFC | LTLS | AGII | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,100,813 | 1,167,916 | 2,041,093 | 2,733,619 | 1,515,405 | 6,910,263 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 112,495 | 70,866 | 260,095 | 637,050 | 284,988 | 462,543 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 150,551 | 5,161 | 965,975 | 6,682 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,066,756) | (534,850) | (46,014) | (780,887) | (1,182,784) | (3,625,663) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (252,374) | (191,814) | 0 | (259,631) | (258,959) | (89,166) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,894,178 | 512,119 | 2,405,725 | 2,335,313 | 1,324,625 | 3,664,659 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 14,741.5 | 2,724.0 | 29.1 | 57.2 | 1,471.8 | 3,066.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 332.00 | 188.00 | 82,600.00 | 40,850.00 | 900.00 | 1,195.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 332.00 | 188.00 | 82,600.00 | 40,850.00 | 900.00 | 1,195.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | VND | VND | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |