After a surprisingly dovish FOMC last week, bitcoin recorded a new 2023 high. However, the price was rejected at $36k and has been fluctuating around $35k. Fortunately, major altcoins followed bitcoin’s October rally, which, in turn, suppressed bitcoin’s downside risk so far. XRP has seen a double-digit rise in the past couple of days as Ripple’s annual SWELL conference starts this wednesday.
Historically, the price of XRP rises as the SWELL conference nears, and peaks as the conference begins, and decreases after the conference. This repeated pattern in the price of XRP during the SWELL season–the SWELL anomaly, in other words–is expected to happen this year as well, so the recent rallies in the crypto market may be snapped towards the end of the week.
From a macro perspective, the U.S. market seems to have digested last week’s FOMC and now is waiting for chair Powell’s panel discussion on Thursday. The Fed chair Powell last week indicated that, although inflation is still running high, the Fed is undecided on what to do at the December meeting. The FOMC statement also pointed out that the recent rise in treasury yields could weigh on household and business activities. Plus, since last week’s FOMC, some U.S. economic data have hinted at rate hike pause to continue.
October’s U.S. jobs report revealed some improvements in the tight labor market condition, and ISM’s service PMI cooled down more than market expectations. If chair Powell and other Fed members show acknowledge these improvements this week, bitcoin could cancel out the expected downward pressure mentioned above and sustain the current level.