Zalando’s 2025 outlook comes in line with consensus estimates; shares slip

Published 06/03/2025, 07:40 pm
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Investing.com -- Zalando SE (ETR:ZALG) issued an outlook for the fiscal 2025 (FY25) that came in line with analysts’ expectations. The German fashion retailer’s shares slipped around 1% in European trading Thursday.

Zalando said on Thursday that both its active customer base and average order value increased last year, while online shopping across Europe showed signs of recovery following a post-pandemic shift back to physical stores.

For fiscal 2025 (FY25), Zalando forecasts revenue and gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth of 4% to 9%, which is in line with the company consensus at the midpoint.

The company expects adjusted EBIT of €530 million to €590 million this year, up from €511 million in 2024, also matching the consensus estimate at the midpoint.

These projections do not factor in the planned acquisition of smaller online retailer About You, which is expected to be finalized around mid-2025.

“We think the set-up into FY25 is good and guidance is likely reassuring to investors albeit given these question marks,” Barclays (LON:BARC) analysts led by Sarah Roberts said.

“However, we think that the equity story becomes more complicated post the About You acquisition (we expect in 2H) where we expect the deal to be dilutive to Zalando EPS in ’25 and ’26 on our forecasts,” they added.

In 2024, revenue rose 4.2% to €10.6 billion, while GMV increased 4.5% to €15.3 billion.

By the end of last year, Zalando’s active customer count had grown to 51.8 million from 49.6 million the previous year, with the average order value rising to €60.9 from €59.8.

Germany remains Zalando’s largest market, but the company plans to expand into Bulgaria, Greece, and Portugal this year, bringing its total number of markets to 28.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts said they “expect the shares to react in-line with the market with 2025 GMV, revenue and adj. EBIT guided in-line with consensus.”

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