Australia faces a heightened risk of summer blackouts due to the declining reliability of coal power, lagging renewable energy infrastructure, and the return of El Nino conditions.
Zoe Whitton, managing director at climate change advisory firm Pollination, expressed concern over the country's "faltering energy transition" and advised residents to prepare with candles and air purifiers.
Whitton anticipates more government intervention will be necessary given Australia's struggles to meet renewables targets and ambitious 2030 climate goals.
She noted that while there is no lack of capital from pension funds and overseas investors wanting to invest in Australia’s energy transition, policies as they stand mean investors are unable to meet their renewables investment mandates.
“You need revenue opportunities, and you often need muscular industry policy to create the demand that creates those revenue opportunities,” said Whitton.
Paul Broad, former CEO of Snowy Hydro, stated “the lights are going to go out” following the past three mild summers. He echoed the need for straightforward conversations about energy supply risks, saying politicians are not listening to the warnings around the risks to supply.
Boardroom Energy principal of energy advisory service Matthew Warren described it as a “kind of a pretty fragile state we’re in and we’re rolling into ... we haven’t had a proper El Nino heatwave for five years, and we have a lot less generation and older generation going into this one.”
2030 renewables targets
The comments come at a critical time as federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen defends the government's target of 82% renewable energy by 2030.
Bowen argued that lowering targets would risk breaching Australia's obligations under the Paris Accord, despite opposition energy spokesman Ted O'Brien criticising the goal as "lunacy".
Warren said it was important to maintain reliable and affordable power supply through the transition in order to retain public support.
Backing O’Brien’s view is Broad, who sees “zero chance” of reaching the 2030 targets. Warren added that it was “physically not possible” to build the infrastructure required in time, and that in order to retain public support, it is important to maintain reliable and affordable power supply through the transition.
Victoria and South Australia particularly vulnerable
Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) noted that Victoria and South Australia are particularly vulnerable to blackouts this summer due to ageing coal plants and slow renewable infrastructure development.
While there is some optimism that policy shifts could improve grid stability, others deem reaching 2030 targets nearly impossible.
The ongoing debate underscores the need for more substantial policy measures to secure Australia's energy future and meet its climate targets.