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Headline NFP number 'bad' for stocks, report positive in aggregate; bias moving toward 25bp - analysts

Published 11/03/2023, 01:32 am
Updated 11/03/2023, 01:32 am
© Reuters.

© Reuters.

By Senad Karaahmetovic 

The United States added 311,000 jobs in February, according to the latest Labor Department data released today. This is above Reuters’ 225,000 estimate and a clear sign that the jobs market is still very strong.

The unemployment rate jumped to 3.6% from 3.4% in January, which was also expected for February.

Futures initially fell on the headline number before racing higher as the jobs report also yielded some good news for the bulls. Average hourly earnings rose 4.6%, below the expected 4.8% as the monthly increase was 0.2% vs 0.4% estimate.

At 09:00 EST (14:00 GMT), the S&P 500 futures are up about 11 points, or +0.3% on the day.

Vital Knowledge analysts believe today’s jobs report is positive in aggregate for stocks.

“The headline 311K number is “bad” (for stocks), but there are enough offsets that make this report positive in aggregate,” the analysts wrote in a client note shortly after the payrolls report was released.

“The 311K is offset by the higher unemployment rate, the cooler wage growth, the shorter workweek, and the more moderate 177K figure from the Household survey. All these factors, coupled with the bank stress, is likely to bias the Fed toward 25bp on 3/22 and prevent the 2023 dot from rising by more than 50bp,” they added.

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