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FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX flat today as overcooked inflation looms again

Published 23/10/2023, 03:56 pm
© Reuters.  FIVE at FIVE AU: ASX flat today as overcooked inflation looms again

The S&P/ASX200 closed down today, slipping 58.50 points or 0.85% to 6,842.20 and setting a new 100-day low.

Over the last five days, the index has lost 2.96% and 2.48% over the last 52 weeks.

Health Care was one of the few sectors that looked, well, healthy, up 1.42%, with Consumer Staples not too far behind (0.92%), while Energy and Materials were a drag on the index, down -3.15% and -2.43% respectively.

Inflation still predicted to be high

Economists are expecting inflation to rise by 5.3% when the September CPI data is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday of this week.

The culprit? Rising oil prices, which are fanning the flames yet again, up 13% in the last three months.

Inflation has been slowly coming down since the December quarter of last year when it peaked at 7.8%, but there’s still a long way to go.

In the US, Jerome Powell – whose address to the Economic Club of New York was disrupted by climate protesters last week – was unable to explain why the US economy had remained so stubbornly resilient in the face of continued rate hikes by the Fed.

Instead, he took the unusual step of criticising government borrowing. It’s an easy target, given that US debt has climbed to more than $US33 trillion, with a fiscal deficit of almost $US2 trillion.

eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert painted a vivid picture of the sliding global markets in his commentary, with tech – particularly bitcoin – proving the one enduringly bullish sector:

"It was a sea of red for global stocks last week as geopolitical tensions and rising yields saw sentiment crushed as investors entered risk-off mode, with gold and oil prices higher.

Bitcoin defies critics

“Among the sell-off in global assets, bitcoin continued to defy critics, trading above $30,000 over the weekend as the expectation of an acceptance of a spot ETF grows. The asset has now gained 80% YTD, making it the best-performing asset class.

“Investor sentiment has been depressed but our recent global retail investor survey shows investors are bullish on crypto out of all assets for the fourth quarter, with 15% saying crypto would be the asset they plan to buy in Q4.

“This supports our view of a strong road ahead for bitcoin with a long list of catalysts, from the acceptance of a spot ETF, March’s always-important ‘halving’, the new global banking and US corporate accounting regulations making it easier to own crypto, as well as the potential to soon see the first central bank holding bitcoin in reserves.

“With the Nasdaq100 down by 2.9% last week, the wave of tech earnings this week will have investors on edge. However, it could be a catalyst to offer some positivity and improve investor sentiment. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) all report this week with a big focus across all names on AI and margins.

“Tech is the market behemoth. It is the biggest and best-performing sector and has the strongest growth, with the ‘magnificent seven’ leading the earnings recovery. Tech Q3 profits are set to rise over 30% vs -2% for the remaining ‘S&P 493’, justifying their premium valuation and lifting the whole market."

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