🔺 What to do when markets are at an all-time high? Find smart bargains, like these.See Undervalued Shares

Peaking and creaking: Australia's summer set to bring new power supply squeeze

Published 15/09/2017, 03:07 pm
© Reuters.  Peaking and creaking: Australia's summer set to bring new power supply squeeze
NG
-

* Summer 2017/2018 power prices for South Australia soar

* South Australia seen particularly prone to supply shortage

* Power prices prohibitively high despite vast resources

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Australia faces another electricity supply squeeze towards the end of the year, with wholesale power prices already soaring in the latest sign that the country's creaking power infrastructure is struggling to keep up with peak summer demand.

In the latest red flag that the country's upcoming hot season could see a repeat of last year's supply shortages, wholesale power prices for South Australia for baseload (24 hours) delivery in December have shot up to A$130 ($103.91) per megawatt-hour (MWh), nearly a third above their current level.

Traders say those high prices mean the market expects to feel the pinch of a supply squeeze towards 2018.

"If prices are already so high without the presence of a heatwave or an unexpected power plant shutdown, that indicates a supply squeeze is already being priced in," said one Australian power trader, declining to be named as he was not authorised to speak about market trends.

"Once consumption soars amid a real heatwave, production will struggle to keep up," the trader said. "We could see a repeat of last summer: prices spike and the lights go off."

The concern is shared by Australia's energy market operator, which warned earlier this month the country faces more blackouts over the coming southern hemisphere summer. said that South Australia is particularly prone to price spikes and supply squeezes.

"Volatility is always much more prevalent in South Australia because they get most of the extreme heat due to the...northerly winds blowing in from central Australia," said Andrew Koscharsky, Director of Energy with commodity trading house RCMA Group.

"Adding to all of this is the reliance on renewables...especially wind farms, which are more set up to catch the southerly winds, rather than the northerly winds in summer."

This summer's weather forecasts will do little to lighten the mood.

Thomson Reuters meteorologist Georg Mueller said this week that Australian "temperatures will be slightly above normal in most areas" between September and December.

That is adding fuel to the flames of a heated political debate in Australia. Despite its wealth, thanks in part to some of the world's biggest natural gas and coal reserves, the country struggles to find enough fuel for its own power stations, triggering demands to force companies to hold back some fuels for the domestic market. wholesale power prices are also prohibitively expensive for any energy-intensive industry, like aluminium smelters or industrial manufacturers.

The average first quarter baseload power price of these three provinces is A$128 per MWh ($102.32).

That compares with $60 per MWh in Singapore, where all the fuel has to be imported, including on tankers as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Australia, or $50 per MWh in fuel importing Germany.

($1 = 1.2511 Australian dollars)

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC: Australian forward power curves

http://reut.rs/2f9z6aM COLUMN-Political headaches as China sucks up Australian coal, LNG

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.