Investing.com -- The Trump administration is reportedly considering changes to the Biden-era AI export rules, a move that Bernstein analysts say could worsen an already problematic framework for chipmakers like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA).
The current rules, scheduled to take effect May 15, divide global markets into three tiers based on risk, with shipments to the highest-risk countries like China and Russia effectively banned, and those to mid-tier countries—such as Singapore and Switzerland—requiring special licenses.
“Suffice it to say, NVDA and many others have not been happy with these rules, and have lobbied Trump officials to walk them back,” Bernstein analysts led by Stacy A. Rasgon said in a note.
According to a report by Reuters, the administration is exploring a shift to bilateral, government-to-government agreements. That would effectively tie access to advanced AI technologies to broader trade objectives, turning export policy into a “lever (or a hammer)” in geopolitical negotiations.
Bernstein argues this would mark a step backward: “Replacing a global framework with individually negotiated bilateral agreements seems clearly worse.”
The brokerage believes such uncertainty around regulation could continue to weigh on Nvidia’s stock, even as broader AI demand remains intact.
“It is unfortunate that AI is getting so caught up amid ill-conceived, self-inflicted geopolitical actions,” the analysts wrote, warning that the increased regulatory burden could give alternative suppliers like Huawei an edge—particularly in markets where U.S. firms are constrained.
“We wish we could say we were surprised, but nothing is surprising anymore,” the analysts said, underlining the unpredictable policy environment for U.S. tech exporters.
While no final decisions have been made, the risk of prolonged uncertainty is now a material overhang for the sector.