Australia is lagging significantly in its bid to achieve the federal government’s legislated target of a 43% emissions reduction by 2030, according to the Climate Change Authority's (CCA) Annual Progress Report.
The findings come as New South Wales narrowly avoided blackouts amid an unseasonal heatwave that strained the energy grid.
The CCA report highlighted that Australia’s emissions fell by only three million tonnes in 2023–24, well below the annual reduction of 15 million tonnes required to meet the 2030 target.
While emissions from agriculture and land use were down 14%, sectors such as transport saw increases, and electricity emissions remained stagnant. The electricity sector, which generates more than one-third of national emissions, remains a key challenge.
The federal government aims to source 82% of electricity from renewables by 2030, up from the current 40%. However, the CCA warned that renewable infrastructure is being deployed at half the pace needed, with only 7.5 gigawatts (GW) of capacity added last year, compared to the required 10.5GW annually.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged the need for accelerated action, saying: "The baseline projections now show emissions falling by 42.6% below 2005 levels over the next six years," but he added that progress hinges on rapid decarbonisation of the electricity grid.
The opposition criticised the government’s renewable energy strategy, suggesting it could lead to energy reliability issues.
Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack argued that a “renewables-only” approach risked blackouts, while promoting nuclear power as an alternative.
Investors remain cautious, urging consistent policies to maintain momentum. Erwin Jackson of the Investor Group on Climate Change warned: "Policy stability is critical to avoid undermining recent gains and restoring investor confidence."
With major coal plant closures imminent, the stakes for Australia’s energy transition are rising.