Investing.com -- ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report highlights the potential of the Autonomous Logistics industry to revolutionize supply chains, cut costs, and alter consumer behavior. The report suggests that autonomous vehicles, which include both ground and aerial devices, could significantly reduce supply chain costs due to their higher utilization rates compared to human-operated systems.
The report states that robotrucks and drones face more commercialization challenges than robotaxis. While robotaxis have already been commercialized, most robotrucks still require a human operator. However, many companies are working towards eliminating the need for a driver this year. Drones, on the other hand, have been capable of autonomous flight for several years, but logistical issues pose a greater challenge than the autonomous flight technology itself.
Waymo and Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) have spearheaded the regulatory path for robotaxis in the US and China respectively. According to the report, federal legislation could supersede state regulations in the US by 2025. The trucking industry is influenced by lobbyists, while drone regulations are overseen by the FAA, which has often failed to meet its own timelines for establishing a drone delivery framework.
In the robotaxi sector, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is vertically integrated, while companies like Waymo and Baidu have partnered with Geely and Hyundai/BAIC respectively. In the trucking space, companies like Aurora have formed partnerships with Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) such as Paccar (NASDAQ:PCAR) and Volvo (OTC:VLVLY), as well as integrators like Continental.
The report also highlights the importance of real-world data in the autonomous vehicle industry. While Tesla has accumulated billions of miles of customer data for training, Waymo and Baidu have only collected data from millions of miles. Autonomous trucking companies have adopted a route-by-route approach to data collection, expanding their data libraries as they add more routes.
The report suggests that logistics drone companies are starting to overcome regulatory barriers. Most drone deliveries have so far occurred in rural areas outside the US to meet medical needs. Companies with more real-world data and regulatory approvals for beyond-visual-line-of-sight flights without observers are expected to outpace their competitors.
In the US, commercial autonomous trucking currently requires a safety driver. China is leading in the generation of real-world driving data, but US companies are expected to make significant progress once regulators approve the removal of safety drivers in 2025.
The report anticipates that the global autonomous delivery revenue could reach approximately $900 billion by 2030. As the cost of transporting goods decreases, technology-enabled delivery is expected to reshape consumer buying habits. ARK’s research suggests that revenues from robot/drone delivery fees and autonomous trucking could reach approximately $440 billion and $420 billion respectively in 2030.
The report also emphasizes the need for low-cost, AI-powered aircraft in the US, stating that high-cost aircraft have proven unsustainable against low-cost internationally made drones. AI is enhancing decision-making and efficiency, thereby reducing the need for human troops.
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