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FOREX-Quiet start for dollar in Fed week, eyes on yuan

Published 14/12/2015, 09:25 am
© Reuters.  FOREX-Quiet start for dollar in Fed week, eyes on yuan
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* Dollar, euro, yen little changed in early Asian trade

* Aussie firmer after encouraging Chinese data

* Yuan fix eyed after China launches trade-weighted index

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The dollar, euro and yen got off to a sedate start on Monday following a relatively uneventful weekend, but encouraging Chinese data put a small spring in the Aussie's step.

The one major move was the South African rand, which was quoted 5 percent higher ZAR=D4 after President Jacob Zuma restored Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in a sudden U-turn. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N1420TS

Data on Saturday showed factory output growth in China accelerated to a five-month high in November, while retail sales expanded at an annual 11.2 percent pace - the strongest this year. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N14107F

So while the dollar, euro and yen were little changed from late New York levels, the Australian dollar AUD=D4 - often used as a liquid proxy for China plays - opened about 20 pips higher. It was last flirting with 72 U.S. cents, having been as high as $0.7218.

The dollar fetched 121.17 yen JPY= and the euro bought 133.03 yen EURJPY=R . Against the greenback, the common currency stayed near the $1.1000 level EUR= , having gained 3.7 percent in the past two weeks.

The euro has been swept higher by a vicious short squeeze after the European Central Bank fell short of delivering the aggressive easing measures that many had expected at its Dec. 3 meeting.

The Federal Reserve's Dec. 15-16 policy review is next, but the focus is not on whether the central bank will raise interest rates - a move that is already priced in - but how quickly it will try to normalise monetary policy.

"The focus now is on the rate hike path, as the market outlook remains divergent from FOMC projections," analysts at Barclays (L:BARC) wrote in a note to clients, using the acronym for the Fed's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee.

"We expect a 25-basis-point rate hike this week, followed by three hikes next year, bringing the target range for the fed funds rate to 1.00-1.25 percent by end-2016," the note said.

The market is also keeping an eye on the Chinese currency after Beijing surprised some by shifting the way it values the yuan, or renminbi, towards a trade-weighted basis from the U.S. dollar.

China late on Friday launched a new trade-weighted yuan exchange rate index, saying it was to discourage investors from exclusively tracking the currency's fluctuations against the greenback. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N14107Q

"While some will see this as cover for currency devaluation, we suspect the goal is to keep the renminbi's value broadly stable rather than be compelled to have it follow the dollar higher, as it has over the past couple of years," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

"But the haphazard way in which information is dribbling out is doing nothing to generate confidence."

The yuan CNY=CFXS closed at its lowest level in over four years on Friday. All eyes will be on Monday's fix. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N140342

The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is due later in the morning, slim pickings in a week where the Fed is front and centre. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13Y04Y (Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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