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FOREX-Dollar drops as September rate hike chances fade

Published 20/08/2015, 09:40 pm
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar drops as September rate hike chances fade
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(releads, adds fresh quotes)

* Norwegian crown at 7-1/2 month low after GDP data

* Euro firmer as bearish bets cut

* Dollar index down 0.1 percent on Fed minutes

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Thursday, with investors trimming bets in its favour after Federal Reserve minutes suggested policymakers were in no hurry to raise interest rates.

Traders said the probability of a September hike is now around 40 percent, down from about 50 percent towards the end of July, a factor that is likely to weigh on the dollar in the near term. With volumes drying up over the summer holiday period, traders said currency moves were likely to be exaggerated.

The dollar index .DXY was down 0.2 percent at 96.195, with the euro rising 0.5 percent to trade at $1.1178 EUR= . The dollar was also down 0.3 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.96255 francs CHF= , although it was marginally higher against the yen JPY= .

"The ongoing (Fed) rhetoric of data-dependence and a reluctance to commit is becoming tiresome to the market," said Alex Lydall, senior sales trader at Foenix Partners, a firm which offers currency hedging solutions to companies.

"Bearing in mind these minutes were released from the July meeting, further risk events have occurred since, in China especially, with oil prices also continuing to tumble, questioning whether or not the Fed could likely be more dovish."

The minutes showed that while Fed officials agreed last month the economy was nearing a point where rates should move higher, some were worried lagging inflation and a weak global economy posed risks too big to commit to a liftoff.

Meanwhile, in the European session, the Norwegian crown fell to its lowest in over seven months against the euro after Norway's economy slowed in the second quarter, leaving the door open for more monetary easing in coming months.

The crown has fallen 10 percent in the past three months against the euro as prices of crude oil, Norway's main export, fell, dampening overall investment and pushing up unemployment.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to 9.2734 crowns, its highest since early January, while Norway's import weighted currency index fell 0.1 percent.

"The data, while in line with expectations, is not good with the revisions to the first quarter catching the market's attention," said Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB. "This boosts expectations that the Norges Bank will lower rates next month and the euro can rise up to 9.50 crowns."

Norway's overall economy shrank in the second quarter, with the mainland growing at a measly 0.2 percent.

(Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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