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Australia, NZ dollars hold ground with commodities, carry trade

Published 02/12/2016, 03:05 pm
Updated 02/12/2016, 03:10 pm
© Reuters.  Australia, NZ dollars hold ground with commodities, carry trade

By Swati Pandey

WELLINGTON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars held steady on Friday as firm commodity prices and demand against the yen helped stave off pressure from their U.S. counterpart.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 was holding around $0.7410, pretty much where it started the week.

The Aussie has support at $0.7370 with chart resistance at 75 U.S. cents, a level it failed to break three times this week.

Data on Friday showed retail sales beat market forecasts to rise 0.5 percent in October, a welcome relief after a run of disappointing figures this week suggested the economy had all but stalled in the third quarter. RBA is likely to be encouraged by these recent trends, leaving the Bank comfortably on hold for the time being," said Ivan Colhoun, chief economist at National Australia Bank.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holds its last monthly policy meeting of the year next week and is widely expected to keep rates at 1.5 percent for a fourth month. AU/INT

Sentiment was aided by strength in iron ore and coal, Australia's two top exports. The RBA on Thursday reported its index of commodity prices surged 10.2 percent in November, to be up 24 percent on the year.

However, Colhoun said the Aussie is likely to be more influenced by global factors in the short-term, with bond yields on U.S. Treasuries and the greenback jumping on expectations of higher inflation in the United States.

"The resultant stronger US$ is expected to put downward pressure on the $A," Colhoun said.

Investors will keep a close watch on U.S. jobs report due later in the day and an Italian referendum on constitutional reform during the weekend.

The Aussie held strong on the yen at 84.47 AUDJPY= after gaining for three straight days. It has been underpinned by carry trade demand, where investors borrow at low rates in yen to buy higher yielding assets.

The New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 rose 0.1 percent to $0.7093 on Friday. It was on track to end the week 0.7 percent higher for its second straight weekly gain.

Against the Australian dollar, it was little changed at A$1.0449 AUDNZD= .

"AUD/NZD continues to confuse. As the past five weeks have produced opposite directions at the close, we can safely say the markets remain undecided to the direction of the next major move," said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at ThinkMarkets.

Simpson sees key chart support at A$1.041.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= slipped, with yields rising seven ticks across the curve.

Australian government bond futures dropped, with the three-year bond contract YTTc1 down 5 ticks at 98.00. The 10-year contract YTCc1 fell 8 ticks to 97.1700. (Editing by Kim Coghill)

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