Investing.com -- Speculation over China’s potential divestment of dollar assets has resurfaced following recent swings in U.S. bond markets and exchange rates. But a closer look at available data suggests there is little concrete evidence that Beijing is engineering a large-scale shift away from U.S. assets.
According to Capital Economics, China’s state institutions still hold over half their foreign portfolios in U.S. assets, despite escalating geopolitical tensions.
“China’s main state institutions own at least $3 trillion in dollar assets,” said Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics.
It is “almost certain” that Chinese reserve managers were active in markets during the recent volatility, particularly given the sharp currency movements, Williams said.
Yet, there’s no clear indication they were behind the bond market sell-off. “China would have been one seller among many,” the report noted, adding that the intervention was more likely aimed at stabilizing the renminbi-dollar exchange rate rather than offloading assets to pressure the U.S.
According to Williams, a full-scale divestment would carry significant risks for China. Any fire sale of dollar assets could strengthen the renminbi, hurting Chinese exports at a time when trade tensions with the U.S. are already elevated.
Moreover, developed markets outside the U.S. would likely resist absorbing large inflows that could drive up their currencies. “Doing that now, with the export sector facing the onslaught of U.S. tariffs, would be an act of self-sabotage,” the economist wrote.
Even if Beijing did attempt to weaponize its holdings, the impact on the U.S. might be limited. The Federal Reserve could step in as a buyer of last resort to stabilize markets, while other investors might see value in the dislocation.
There is evidence that China is gradually reducing its exposure, as seen in long-term U.S. Treasury data. Still, the scale and pace of these moves remain modest, and much of China’s activity may be hidden in custodial accounts outside the U.S.
“The TIC data don’t tell us whether China’s asset holders really are reducing their dollar exposure or simply trying to make it less visible,” the note said.
Despite rising tensions with the U.S., China’s overall dollar exposure remains high. While there is speculation that Chinese reserve managers might be shifting assets, the use of custodians outside the U.S. complicates tracking flows. Even the upcoming TIC data release is unlikely to offer clarity on recent activity.
Available figures suggest that dollar holdings by the PBOC, CIC, and commercial banks have not declined more quickly than global averages. This appears puzzling given geopolitical concerns, including the freezing of Russian assets in 2022, which highlighted the challenge of protecting reserves from Western sanctions.
“The other option is to shift more assets into alternatives like EM sovereign debt and real assets. But this only makes sense for the portion of the portfolio that exceeds China’s perception of its foreign exchange needs,” Williams said.
Such assets carry high risks and poor liquidity and often experience sell-offs at times of market stress.