Investing.com -- President Donald Trump has hailed the wave of incoming revenue from tariffs as one of the key policy ingredients to usher in a ’Golden Age’ for America, but credit ratings agencies aren’t so sure just as rising bets against the United States’ ability to repay its debts fuel debate about a possible downgrade to the country’s ’low risk of default’ credit rating.
Tariffs have become the centerpiece of Trump’s economic pitch. By slapping duties on imports, the administration argues it is not only protecting American industry but also bringing in billions -- about $2 billion a day, according to Trump -- in revenue to shore up the nation’s finances.
The White House paints this as a win-win: stronger domestic manufacturing alongside a healthier Treasury balance sheet.
But the financial markets and credit rating agencies tell a different story. Far from a fiscal windfall, tariffs are increasingly viewed as a risk factor for the U.S. government’s creditworthiness.
“Moody’s has cited tariffs as a risk to its US’s sovereign rating of Aaa,” Macquarie analysts said in a note.
The agency’s concerns reflect a broader anxiety over the sustainability of America’s fiscal position amid trade tensions and mounting debt.
These concerns are manifesting where it hurts most: the bond market.
Following the implementation of new tariffs — notably the latest round of reciprocal tariffs on electronics imports — yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury jumped sharply. But this isn’t a response to booming inflation or optimism about economic growth, instead it’s the “rising sovereign risk premium” that investors demand to hold U.S. debt amid concerns over default risk, according to Macquarie.
In a further sign that the investors are buying insurance against a U.S. default, credit default swap spreads on U.S. government bonds have widened.
It’s a subtle but telling shift: the world’s largest economy, long considered the safest lender on the planet, is facing skepticism about its financial stewardship.
The alarm bells from the bond market have forced the Trump administration to make a U-turn on the reciprocal tariffs, offer a temporary exemption on levies imposed on electronic imports and tee up the idea of a possible short reprieve for auto tariffs.
This potential “brake” on escalating tariff tensions, Macquarie says, is aimed at bringing “some stability to the tariff outlook.”
While it’s too early to determine whether diplomacy can reverse the damage or merely delay the inevitable, the Trump administration’s ability to manage debt and maintain investor confidence is under scrutiny.
A ratings downgrade would deliver a knockout blow to the United States’ status as the world’s ‘risk-free’ benchmark, sending borrowing costs soaring for homeowners and small businesses alike. With the country’s credit standing on the line, the administration’s tariff gamble is looking less like a fiscal cure-all and more like a high-stakes bet with no easy exit.