Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Dollar adrift in a sea of central bank uncertainty

Published 21/12/2015, 03:21 pm
FOREX-Dollar adrift in a sea of central bank uncertainty
EUR/USD
-
USD/JPY
-
BARC
-
DXY
-

* Dollar index below two-week highs touched last week

* BoE hawk says slow wages, weak oil offers breathing space

* Long dollar positions trimmed further - IMM data

By Wayne Cole and Lisa Twaronite

SYDNEY/TOKYO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The dollar drifted lower in light Asian trading on Monday amid doubts about how far and fast the Federal Reserve would raise U.S. interest rates next year.

The dollar eased to 121.20 yen JPY= and further away from Friday's brief peak of 123.59. The euro edged up to $0.0867 EUR= and the dollar was a shade weaker against a basket of major currencies at 98.680 .DXY .

The yen held gains made after Friday's decision by the Bank of Japan to merely tweak its stimulus campaign rather than outright expand the amount of assets it buys.

The resulting shakeout of long dollar positions was eerily reminiscent of the reaction to the European Central Bank's policy easing early in the month, which also disappointed the market's lofty expectations.

"Policy divergence relative to other major central banks remains, but the BOJ and, to a lesser extent, the ECB are already near the limits of what they can credibly deliver," Barclays (L:BARC) analyst Antonio Garcia Pascual wrote in a note.

"We see persistently weak core inflation as a global phenomenon and expect it to encourage a cautious stance at the Fed."

Barclays predicts the Fed will raise rates by no more than 75 basis points next year compared to the 100 basis points assumed by the FOMC.

A Reuters poll of 120 economists found the Fed would hike rates again in March, but probably would not move as quickly next year as policymakers have suggested. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N14736C

Investors have reacted by pairing back what had become a very crowded wager on further gains in the dollar.

Net long positions in dollars fell to their lowest since early November, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. IMM/FX

Policy uncertainty also clouds the outlook for sterling.

One of the more hawkish board members at the Bank of England told the Daily Telegraph that the factors pushing down on inflation had "become a bit more prolonged" which offered "breathing space" before tightening.

Martin Weale was one of two BoE rate-setters who pushed in vain in late 2014 for higher borrowing costs, so his concession suggested there was little risk of a hike near term.

The reluctance of the BoE to move has been pressuring the pound for several months now. On Monday, it was pinned at $1.4912 GBP= and just above an eight-month trough of $1.4862. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Richard Borsuk)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.