By Sharon Klyne
SYDNEY, July 2 (Reuters) - Syndicated loan volumes in Asia Pacific ex-Japan plunged 15 percent to $214.1 billion in the first half of this year from the same year-ago period, as regional economies slowed due to weak exports and soft consumer demand, according to Thomson Reuters LPC data.
Deal flow slowed down considerably with 608 transactions closed - a 30 percent drop compared to the 870 deals in what was a busy first half of 2014, the data shows, and the outlook for the rest of the year is not expected to improve given the region's huge dependence on trade.
"With the economic slowdown that is taking place, companies don't have the confidence to invest in increased capital expenditure, and therefore if they can defer expansion, they can also defer borrowing," Phil Lipton, HSBC's head of loan syndications Asia Pacific said by telephone from Hong Kong.
"The first half of 2014 was particularly strong, so we are making a comparison with what was one of the strongest halves we've seen," he said. "There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the market as it is still very liquid. Banks still want to do business - it is the lack of supply that is the issue."
Aside from slowing economies, the loan market faced considerably competition from a lively bond market, according to Boey Yin Chong, head of syndicated finance at DBS, Southeast Asia's largest bank.
"Continued bond issuances for South East Asia and India borrowers meant lesser opportunities for syndicated loans," Boey said.
The outlook for the rest of the year is similarly bearish, observed Boey, who predicted that Asia's volumes, excluding Japan, will be around 25 percent lower than 2014, led by South Asia, Southeast Asia and North Asia.
"The drop is, however, in line with the slowdown in economies and hence investments and capex," he said.
CHINA BUCKS TREND
Bucking the downward trend was China, the region's largest loan market outside Japan. Volumes jumped just over 11 percent to $68 billion on the back of infrastructure, project and real estate loans. The market continues to be dominated by Chinese policy banks and other state-owned lenders and international lenders gained little from the market's performance.
In Japan, the region's largest loan market, volume fell a mere 1.4 percent to $116.7 billion in the first half. The second quarter - typically the slowest period for the loan market as it coincides with the start of Japan's fiscal year - saw $33.9 billion from 197 deals closed, compared to the $35.9 billion from 213 deals in 2014.
Like China, the market is dominated by the mega Japanese banks, which yield little ground to international competitors. Therefore the performance of the region's largest two markets holds less significance for international financiers.
"It may be irrelevant if a particular market does not have deals which international banks do," said John Corrin, ANZ's global head of loan syndications in Hong Kong.
Significantly, a number of offshore Chinese M&A transactions, typically the mainstay of foreign lenders, are increasingly being targeted solely at Chinese lenders on terms which are unviable for international banks. These include Bank of China's close to $2 billion loan for Go Scale Capital's acquisition of Philips Lumileds and BOC and China Merchant Bank's $800 million loan to back the buyout of US-listed OmniVision Technologies Inc.
"North Asia will see a few M&A Chinese event-driven deals but (I'm) concerned over the stretching of some of these terms and pricing," said DBS' Boey. "Some of these deals are meant to target Chinese retail bank investors and will be challenging to some of us."
In Hong Kong, the second-largest market in Asia Pacific (ex-Japan), volumes dropped 15 percent year-on-year to $41.4 billion in the first half. Activity included a couple of jumbo transactions led by the HK$55 billion ($7.1 billion) financing for the reorganisation of Asia's richest man Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Group and Cheung Kong Group, and an HK$18 billion refinancing for Henderson Land Development Co Ltd.
Overall, Southeast Asian volumes fell a sharp 26 percent to $33.7 billion, with Singapore accounting for slightly over half of total volumes.
AUSTRALIA'S BIG SALE
Meanwhile, Australia, the region's third-largest loan market by volume ex-Japan, endured a 33 percent slide to $33 billion compared with the $49 billion raised a year ago.
"For some markets such as Australia, if volumes fall, that is important as it is an addressable market for many international banks," said ANZ's Corrin.
The pipeline in the country is more promising with the New South Wales state government kicking off its highly anticipated $10 billion energy privatisation last month by calling for expressions of interest for a 49 percent stake in power transmission company TransGrid.
Last year's volumes were bolstered by the hefty $7.8 billion loan for the Roy Hill Iron Ore Project in Western Australia as well as the A$22 billion ($16.72 billion) mammoth bridge loan that backed the split of shopping centre operator Westfield Group.
"These deals did inflate the figures for last year," said Loretta Venten, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's head of loan markets and syndications.
The popularity of amendment-and-extension exercises carried over from the second half of last year. Borrowers such as national carrier Qantas Airways Ltd and health care company Sonic Healthcare Ltd took advantage of market conditions to extend their maturity profiles and reprice their loans.
"Amends and extends have also enabled borrowers to take advantage of where pricing has moved to," said Venten. ($1 = 1.3156 Australian dollars) ($1 = 7.7513 Hong Kong dollars)