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Australia, NZ dlrs brace for Fed word on rate outlook

Published 14/03/2017, 02:05 pm
© Reuters.  Australia, NZ dlrs brace for Fed word on rate outlook
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By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, March 14 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday after a survey on domestic business conditions disappointed, while its New Zealand cousin remained on the defensive ahead of an expected hike in U.S. interest rates this week.

Economic data out of China was too mixed to provide much direction, with investment outpacing forecasts even as retail sales undershot. Australian dollar AUD=D4 was off 0.1 percent at $0.7558 in lacklustre trade, but avoided another test of the recent seven-week low of $0.7491.

The currency took a dip after a local measure of business conditions fell from decade highs in February as sales unwound some surprisingly strong gains the month before, though activity remained above average across most sectors.

National Australia Bank's NAB.AX monthly index of business conditions dropped 7 points to +9 in February, but stayed above the long-run average of +5. survey was solid enough to suggest there was scant risk of a cut in interest rates ahead, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) more concerned about cooling a debt-fuelled spike in home prices.

The head of the central bank's financial division on Tuesday hinted regulators were looking at further toughening rules on bank lending for property investment to head off risks in the market. New Zealand dollar NZD=D4 was holding steady at $0.6918, after failing to break above resistance around $0.6950 overnight. Support lies at the recent two-month trough of $0.6890, and a break there would set up a test of the December low at $0.6863.

Investors globally are awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday where a rate rise is considered a done deal. More important will be what policymakers signal about the prospect of further hikes.

Any suggestion that the Fed might tighten more than three times in total this year would tend to push up Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.

Yields on Australian 10-year government debt AU10YT=RR eased a touch to 2.95 percent after hitting the highest since late 2015 last week at 2.988 percent.

Australian government bond futures edged up, with the 10-year contract YTCc1 2.5 ticks firmer at 97.0350. The three-year bond contract YTTc1 was flat at 97.850.

New Zealand government bonds 0#NZTSY= were little changed. (Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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