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TD Cowen sustains McCormick hold stock rating amid growth challenges

EditorNatashya Angelica
Published 23/10/2024, 11:46 pm
MKC
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On Wednesday, TD Cowen maintained its Hold rating on shares of McCormick & Company (NYSE:MKC), with a steady price target of $86.00. The firm highlighted McCormick's recent Investor Day, held at its new headquarters, where the company presented a growth outlook through the fiscal year 2028. This forecast notably did not include the customary 2% growth expectation from acquisitions, instead focusing on organic growth projections.

During the Investor Day, McCormick outlined a strategy to achieve a 4% organic growth rate by the fiscal year 2026, up from a modest 1% in the fiscal year 2024. The company's decision to shift its growth strategy away from relying on acquisitions was seen as a significant move, emphasizing the company's commitment to organic development.

However, TD Cowen expressed skepticism about McCormick's ability to meet these growth targets. The firm pointed to the current weakness in the Chinese market, which could pose a challenge to McCormick's international expansion plans. Furthermore, the firm noted that dissipating pricing power could make it difficult for McCormick to reach its desired growth figures.

The analyst's comments reflect concerns about the feasibility of McCormick's ambitious growth trajectory. The company's focus on organic growth comes at a time when external market factors, such as the performance of the Chinese market, could impact its success.

McCormick's strategy and outlook, as presented during the Investor Day, indicate a shift in the company's approach to growth. However, the execution of this strategy and its effectiveness in the face of market challenges remains to be seen, as indicated by the cautious stance from TD Cowen.

In other recent news, McCormick & Company's third-quarter earnings and revenue results have exceeded analyst expectations.

The company reported an adjusted operating income rise of 15% to $288 million year-over-year, with an adjusted earnings per share reaching $0.83, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.67. Consequently, McCormick has updated its full-year 2024 guidance, adding $0.05 to account for a discrete tax benefit.

Despite the positive earnings, Jefferies, and HSBC maintained a Hold rating on McCormick's stock, with Jefferies reducing the price target to $85. However, BofA Securities lifted the company's stock target and maintained a Buy rating, citing strong third-quarter earnings and an improved outlook.

McCormick also anticipates organic sales growth of 2-3% for fiscal year 2025, aligning with consensus estimates. The company's long-term growth targets remain unchanged and are supported by expected margin expansion in its Flavor Solutions segment, as well as potential growth through mergers and acquisitions.

However, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reiterated its Sell rating on McCormick, despite the company's strong earnings report. McCormick's full-year 2024 outlook was updated, with a slight increase in adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $2.85-$2.90. McCormick plans to focus on strategic investments, particularly in digital transformation, brand marketing, and innovation to drive long-term growth.

InvestingPro Insights

McCormick's recent Investor Day presentation and TD Cowen's analysis can be further contextualized with real-time data from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at $21.15 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the spice and flavoring industry. McCormick's P/E ratio of 26.43 suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for its shares, potentially based on expectations of future growth.

InvestingPro Tips highlight McCormick's strong dividend history, having raised its dividend for 38 consecutive years and maintained payments for 54 years. This track record aligns with the company's focus on sustainable growth and shareholder returns.

However, it is worth noting that 11 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, which may reflect the challenges mentioned by TD Cowen, such as weakness in the Chinese market and dissipating pricing power.

The company's revenue growth of 1.11% over the last twelve months supports TD Cowen's observation of modest growth in fiscal year 2024. McCormick's ambitious target of 4% organic growth by fiscal year 2026 will require significant improvement from current performance levels.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights that could provide a deeper understanding of McCormick's financial position and growth prospects.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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