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Mizuho raises CVR Energy stock target, keeps rating on macro headwinds

EditorNatashya Angelica
Published 07/10/2024, 11:14 pm
CVI
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On Monday, Mizuho Securities adjusted its outlook on CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) shares, a petroleum refining company, by increasing its price target to $26 from the previous $25. The firm has kept its Neutral rating on the stock. This adjustment comes amid anticipated third-quarter financial misses for CVR Energy, including lower than expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), free cash flow (FCF), and earnings per share (EPS) compared to the current consensus.

The anticipated underperformance is attributed to reduced realized margins in CVR Energy's refining operations and seasonally weaker results in the fertilizer segment. The company faced additional challenges due to a weaker macroeconomic environment, which led to lower crack spreads—a measure of refining profit margins.

CVR Energy also experienced unplanned outages at its Coffeyville refinery at the start of the quarter, which likely affected its throughput rates. The rates were expected to be at the lower end of the 200-215 thousand barrels per day (mbbl/d) guidance.

Mizuho's revised price target is based on a net asset value (NAV) approach. Despite the increase in the target price, the firm maintains a cautious stance on CVR Energy, citing macroeconomic headwinds in the refining sub-sector and the relative valuation of the company's stock. The firm's position reflects a broader concern about the potential impacts of the current economic environment on the refining industry.

In other recent news, CVR Energy, backed by Carl Icahn, and a group of creditors have emerged as leading competitors in the U.S. court auction for Citgo Petroleum. The oil refiner has submitted an all-cash offer of approximately $8 billion, competing against an investment group that includes Gold Reserve and a unit of Koch Industries.

The auction has attracted bids from a total of 18 creditors, holding judgments against Venezuela amounting to $21.3 billion. Despite the high stakes, the offers are not expected to cover the full amount owed.

In parallel developments, CVR Energy reported a second-quarter consolidated net income of $38 million, impacted by a fire at the Wynnewood facility causing operational disruptions and additional costs. Despite these challenges, the company declared a $0.50 per share dividend, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns. The company's future outlook includes potential projects in renewables and strategic transactions in refining and with CVR Partners (NYSE:UAN).

These recent developments highlight the ongoing legal disputes with the EPA over small refinery exemptions and the company's strategic expansion in the renewable sector. The company's diversified portfolio, strong performance in the fertilizer segment, and proactive approach to legal disputes indicate a forward-looking strategy aimed at long-term growth and shareholder value.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context to Mizuho's analysis of CVR Energy. Despite the anticipated challenges in Q3, CVR Energy maintains a strong dividend yield of 14.19%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns. This aligns with an InvestingPro Tip highlighting that the company "pays a significant dividend to shareholders" and "has maintained dividend payments for 12 consecutive years."

The company's P/E ratio stands at 4.54, which is relatively low and could indicate potential undervaluation. However, an InvestingPro Tip cautions that CVR Energy is "trading at a high P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth," suggesting that the current valuation may already factor in future growth prospects.

InvestingPro Data shows that CVR Energy's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was $8,553 million, with a revenue growth of -13.62% over the same period. This decline in revenue supports Mizuho's concerns about the challenging macroeconomic environment and its impact on the refining sector.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 10 additional tips for CVR Energy, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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