Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) has adjusted its outlook on Heineken (AS:HEIN) NV (HEIA: NA) (OTC: HEINY (OTC:HEINY)), with analyst Mitch Collett reducing the price target to EUR95.00 from EUR99.00, while sustaining a Buy rating on the shares.
The revision reflects a more cautious stance towards the company's performance in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, balanced by a steadier outlook for the AME&EE and Americas regions.
Heineken is scheduled to announce its third-quarter sales for 2024 on October 23. Deutsche Bank forecasts Heineken's organic volume growth at 1.0% and organic revenue growth at 3.0% for the quarter, with a price/mix increase of 2.0%.
Expectations are set for the company to confirm its full-year 2024 organic operating profit growth guidance of 4-8%, with Deutsche Bank's own estimate at the higher end of 7.7%, compared to the Vuma consensus of 7.0%.
The bank has updated its estimates, taking into account a slightly less optimistic view for the current quarter, reducing the expected organic volume growth from 1.5% to 1.0%, and organic revenue growth from 3.8% to 3.0%, with price/mix now anticipated at 2.0% instead of the previous 2.2%.
For the full year 2024, Deutsche Bank now projects organic volume growth of 1.2%, down from 1.3%, and organic revenue growth of 4.6%, slightly decreased from 4.8%, with organic operating profit growth also adjusted down to 7.7% from 7.9%.
The bank's outlook for Heineken's future beyond 2024 has also been tempered, with minor reductions in organic growth assumptions for the following years. This, combined with updated foreign exchange rates, has led to a decrease in Deutsche Bank's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Heineken by 1.7% for 2024, 3.9% for 2025, and 5.0% for 2026.
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