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AstraZeneca maintains Buy rating despite TL01 risks

Published 10/09/2024, 05:36 am
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On Monday, BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating and $91.70 price target for AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) shares, despite potential approval risks for the company's datopotamab deruxtecan (TL01) treatment. The final overall survival (OS) data from the TL01 2L lung cancer study, presented at the World Lung Conference, was characterized as "underwhelming" by the firm, which could jeopardize the treatment's FDA approval.


The data highlighted three critical issues: a decline in OS hazard ratio (HR) in the non-squamous subgroup since previous data, a lack of nominal significance in the non-squamous subgroup, and a modest OS improvement of 1.3 months in the non-squamous, non-AGA population, with an HR of 0.89.


Despite these concerns, BofA Securities maintains a positive mid-term outlook for AstraZeneca, underpinned by a sales forecast for TL01 at $2.5 billion, with a 75% probability, contributing to $1.75 billion out of a risk-adjusted $7.7 billion in market sales.


The recent data exhibited a non-squamous OS HR of 0.84, which has worsened from 0.77 reported at ESMO 23, and the upper-end confidence interval (CI) has increased to 1.05 from 1.01.


The overall OS benefit was recorded at 2.3 months. Within the non-squamous group, the non-AGA population showed an HR of 0.89, while the AGA subgroup demonstrated an HR of 0.65, which includes 17% of the patients.


Key questions are anticipated for the analyst call scheduled for later today, focusing on the updated OS data and biomarker data presented recently. Discussions are expected to revolve around the FDA's feedback on the totality of the data, the prospects of an FDA advisory committee meeting, the inclusion of the QCS biomarker in the review process, and the potential for delays or new clinical study requests.


Additionally, AstraZeneca's confidence in the breadth of the label will be scrutinized, especially considering the limited benefit seen in the non-AGA population and the biomarker data targeting the non-squamous, non-AGA group.


In other recent news, AstraZeneca's cancer drug, datopotamab deruxtecan (Dato-DXd), developed in partnership with Daiichi Sankyo, has shown a trend toward improving overall survival in a Phase III trial for certain lung cancer patients. Additionally, AstraZeneca's IMFINZI (durvalumab) has received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for treating adults with resectable early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), based on the AEGEAN Phase III trial results.


The drug has also been granted Priority Review status by the FDA for treating limited-stage small cell lung cancer, following the successful results from the ADRIATIC Phase III trial.


On the financial front, AstraZeneca secured €1.4 billion through a bond offering managed by BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) International, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and Société Générale. TD Cowen raised its stock price target on AstraZeneca's shares to $95 from the previous target of $90, while maintaining a Buy rating.


In terms of governance, AstraZeneca disclosed its total number of voting rights and share capital as of the end of August, in compliance with the UK's Financial Conduct Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rules. These are recent developments in the ongoing advancements and achievements of AstraZeneca.


InvestingPro Insights


As AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) navigates the approval process for its TL01 treatment, investors and analysts are closely monitoring the company's financial health and market performance to gauge its resilience and future prospects. According to real-time data from InvestingPro, AstraZeneca boasts a robust market capitalization of $256.76 billion, reflecting investor confidence in its long-term strategy. The company's P/E ratio stands at 39.83, suggesting a premium valuation which aligns with an InvestingPro Tip that highlights the company's trading at a high earnings multiple relative to near-term earnings growth.


InvestingPro Tips also indicate that AstraZeneca is a prominent player in the Pharmaceuticals industry and has maintained dividend payments for 32 consecutive years, showcasing its commitment to delivering shareholder value consistently. While the company operates with a moderate level of debt, it has demonstrated the ability to cover interest payments with its cash flows efficiently. This financial stability could be a key factor in weathering any potential setbacks in the TL01 approval process. For readers interested in a deeper dive, InvestingPro offers additional tips on AstraZeneca, which can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/AZN.


Furthermore, AstraZeneca's revenue growth remains solid with a 10.45% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, and a quarterly revenue growth of 13.33% for the same period. This growth trajectory could help offset any near-term challenges and supports the company's long-term strategy. Despite the uncertainties surrounding TL01, AstraZeneca's financial metrics provide a comprehensive picture of its market position and could be a critical factor for investors making informed decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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