By Colin Packham
SYDNEY, March 3 (Reuters) - Australia's chief commodity forecaster is predicting a 40.4% rise in wheat production this year, arguing that recent heavy rains are likely to encourage farmers to sow more grain.
The forecast from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) would lift 2020/21 production to 21.3 million tonnes, compared to the twelve-year low of 15.17 million tonnes in 2019/20 when drought across Australia's east coast wilted crops.
ABARES said it expected farmers to sow 12 million hectares (29.7 million acres) of wheat this season, up from the 10.1 million hectares planted a year ago.
However, some analysts cautioned it was too early to accurately forecast planting levels given uncertainty over the weather outlook.
"They might as well have just taken out the dart board. We can't possibly know what production will be when we are still two months away from planting," said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank.
"They see a big uptick in planting, but planting reflects the moisture in the soil and if it doesn't rain - many will abandon sowing."
If the higher wheat production materialised, it would weigh on global prices, which jumped to a two-month high in February after ABARES reported the fall in 2019/20 production.
Australia is among the world's top 10 exporters of the grain, which typically contribute about 2% to the country's gross domestic product.
ABARES said the recent rains would not be as beneficial to beef production, forecasting an almost 14% fall as farmers continue to rebuild stocks after the drought left them unable to feed or water livestock.
ABARES forecast beef production of 1.95 million tonnes, down 2.26 million tonnes in 2019/20.