On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) adjusted its outlook on Umicore SA (UMI:BB) (OTC: OTC:UMICY), reducing the price target to EUR 9.50 from EUR 10.00 while maintaining a Hold rating on the company's stock. The revision follows the company's second-half results, leading to changes in the financial model employed by the bank.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank altered their 2025 EBITDA forecast for Umicore (EBR:UMI) by a marginal 1%, setting it at €730 million, which signifies a 4% year-over-year decline. This new estimate sits approximately 2.6% below the company management's guidance range of €720-780 million. The bank's analysts also revised their EBITDA predictions for the years 2026 and 2027, decreasing them by around 5%.
The updated analysis by Deutsche Bank includes an increment in the anticipated investment expenditures, aligning with the company's guidance for the long term. Consequently, the net debt to EBITDA ratio is projected to reach approximately 2.5 by the end of 2025.
On a divisional basis, Deutsche Bank's analysts have increased their 2025 EBITDA estimate for Umicore's Specialty Materials division by 5% to €103 million, which is consistent with management's expectations of a 'slight EBITDA increase' from the previous €97 million. Conversely, the EBITDA forecast for the Recycling division has been reduced by 7% to €296 million, compared to management's guidance which anticipates EBITDA to fall below the 2024 level of €326 million.
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