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Mizuho cuts Red Rock Resorts stock rating, sees downside risk and multiple compression

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 25/11/2024, 09:04 pm
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On Monday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its stance on Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR), downgrading the stock from Outperform to Neutral and reducing the price target to $44.00, down from the previous $57.00. The revision reflects concerns over potential risks to the company's financial estimates for 2025 and a development and construction pipeline that may be slower than initially anticipated.

The analyst from Mizuho highlighted that while Red Rock Resorts is distinguished by its effective management and high-quality assets in the sought-after Las Vegas Locals market, current projections suggest a less favorable risk/reward balance. This assessment is due to the possibility of underperformance relative to market expectations and the threat of the company's stock multiple contracting.

Red Rock Resorts is recognized for its unique position in the gaming sector, with a portfolio of developable land that could be utilized for future casino expansions. Despite these strengths, Mizuho anticipates that the slower-than-expected pipeline progression could negatively impact the company's stock valuation.

The revised price target of $44.00 represents a significant decrease from the prior target, underscoring the firm's revised expectations for the company's financial performance and growth trajectory. Mizuho's downgrade to Neutral indicates a shift to a more cautious outlook on the stock, suggesting that Red Rock Resorts may face challenges in meeting or exceeding the current market estimates.

The downgrade and price target adjustment come amid a broader assessment of the company's prospects, taking into account the potential hurdles that Red Rock Resorts may encounter in the near future. This includes the anticipated impact on the company's earnings and the possible implications for its stock performance in the market.

In other recent news, Red Rock Resorts has reported record-breaking results for the third quarter of 2024, with its Las Vegas operations playing a significant role in this success. Net revenues from these operations increased by 13.9% year-over-year to $464.7 million, while the adjusted EBITDA rose by 5.8% to $202.6 million. The company's consolidated net revenue was $468 million, up by 13.7%, with an adjusted EBITDA of $182.7 million, marking a 4.3% increase.

Despite some challenges including softer group sales and a negative impact on Super Bowl revenues, Red Rock Resorts announced a cash dividend of $0.25 per Class A common share, payable on December 31, 2024. The company also revealed its capital expenditure plans for the coming year, which include major renovations and the development of new properties in the Las Vegas Valley. These expenditures for 2024 are projected between $185 million and $195 million, excluding the Durango project.

The Durango Casino (EPA:CASP) Resort is set to expand, with a 91% increase in visitation and a 92% increase in theoretical win. Looking forward, Red Rock Resorts plans to potentially double its portfolio size with over 450 acres earmarked for future developments in the Las Vegas Valley. Despite current challenges, the company anticipates improved performance in 2025 and beyond.

InvestingPro Insights

While Mizuho Securities has adjusted its outlook on Red Rock Resorts, InvestingPro data offers additional context to the company's financial position. Despite the downgrade, Red Rock Resorts maintains impressive gross profit margins, with the latest data showing a gross profit margin of 62.13% for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024. This aligns with one of the InvestingPro Tips highlighting the company's "impressive gross profit margins."

The company's revenue growth remains strong, with a 12.99% increase over the last twelve months and a 13.7% quarterly growth in Q3 2024. This robust performance may provide some counterbalance to Mizuho's concerns about future financial estimates.

An InvestingPro Tip notes that Red Rock Resorts "has maintained dividend payments for 9 consecutive years," which could be attractive to income-focused investors. The current dividend yield stands at 1.97%, although there has been a 50% dividend growth decline in the last twelve months.

It's worth noting that InvestingPro has 7 additional tips available for Red Rock Resorts, which could provide further insights into the company's financial health and market position. Investors looking for a more comprehensive analysis may find these additional tips valuable in light of the recent downgrade.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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