On Monday, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) expressed a positive outlook on the retail sector for 2025, citing several factors that could drive growth for certain companies. The firm’s analysts, led by Christopher Horvers, anticipate solid wage growth around 4%, improved housing trends, and a fading share of wallet headwinds to sustain momentum for consumables retailers. Moreover, they expect a shift to positive comparable sales for hardlines retailers. According to InvestingPro data, this outlook comes at a crucial time for retailers like Wayfair, which has shown volatile price movements and is currently trading below its Fair Value.
JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that the higher-end consumer is experiencing an uptick in income growth, bolstered by a substantial stock market wealth effect. Additionally, they note that conditions for the low-end consumer have ceased deteriorating. Based on these observations, the firm predicts that cyclical names within the retail sector are set to re-rate, especially high cyclicals such as Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), and Floor & Decor Holdings (NYSE:FND), which have not yet matched the market’s re-rating trend.
The research firm has adjusted its comparable sales (comp) and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the companies mentioned, positioning them above the consensus estimates on Wall Street. As part of their updated recommendations, JPMorgan has included Home Depot and Wayfair (NYSE:W) in its Analyst Focus List, signifying heightened confidence in these stocks. Additionally, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Lowe’s have been rated ’Overweight,’ indicating an expectation that these stocks will outperform the average return of the stocks analyzed by the firm.
JPMorgan’s bullish stance on these retail stocks comes as the sector prepares for the release of fourth-quarter earnings. The firm’s analysis sets a positive tone for investors looking at retail stocks, particularly those companies that have been lagging in market valuation adjustments.
In other recent news, Wayfair has been the subject of various analyst reviews and corporate changes. Bernstein SocGen Group maintained its Market Perform rating on Wayfair, with a steady price target of $45.00, following new tariff increases by President Trump on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The tariffs are expected to impact Wayfair’s business due to its significant reliance on imported goods, particularly from China.
Piper Sandler reaffirmed its positive stance on Wayfair shares, maintaining an Overweight rating and a $58.00 price target. The firm’s analysts highlighted the potential for revenue upside in the fourth quarter (Q4), suggesting a strong risk/reward scenario ahead of the company’s earnings report. Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities reiterated its Outperform rating on Wayfair with a steady price target of $60.00, following Wayfair’s announcement of the cessation of its operations in Germany.
BofA Securities adjusted its price target for Wayfair stock, increasing it to $51.00 from the previous target of $44.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the company’s shares. The adjustment came amid a fluctuating day for Wayfair’s stock. In a significant shift in its financial oversight, Wayfair has announced the dismissal of Ernst & Young LLP (EY) as its independent registered public accounting firm and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) as its new auditor. These are the recent developments for Wayfair.
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