Originally published by AMP Capital
- Australian inflation data has disappointed again with the December quarter Consumer Price Index data showing headline inflation of 0.6% quarter on quarter or 1.9% over the year. Consensus was expecting a 0.7% increase and 2.0% year on year.
- Underlying inflation as measured by the trimmed mean and weighted median averaged 0.4% over the quarter and 1.9% over the year which also missed expectations of a 0.5% lift but year on year growth came in on expectations.
The largest prices rises were across petrol (+10.4%) which was expected as oil prices rose, domestic holiday travel (+6.3%) which normally rises in the December quarter, tobacco (+8.5%) due to the government tobacco excise and fruit (+9.3%). Despite these large price increases over the quarter, the overall weakness in price pressures across the economy more than offset these higher prices. Clothing and footwear prices were down again (-0.3%), furnishings and household equipment also fell (-0.8%), health prices were down (-0.5%) although this is seasonal, car prices continued to fall (-1.1%) and communication prices also continued to tumble (-1.3%). Even rents only rose 0.3% in the quarter or 0.7% year on year.
The inflation data confirms that underlying pricing pressures in the Australian economy are still weak as the economy is still running below potential, competition in numerous industries (retail, insurance, finance, telecommunications) remains intense and the rise in the Australian dollar (it has rallied by another 3% since the beginning of the year) is helping to keep imported price growth low.
Inflation in the private sector part of the economy is running at just 1.1% year as year (as measured by the “Market goods and services ex volatile items” index. This is in contrast to inflation in the government-influenced parts of the economy where inflation is much higher with utilities prices up 9.2% over the year, health costs +4.0%, education 3.2% higher and alcohol and tobacco costs up by 7.3% (see chart below).
Implications for interest rates
The continuing low inflation backdrop means that there is little chance of an imminent RBA interest rate hike. Headline and underlying inflation is still below the RBA’s inflation target of 2-3% and is expected to remain there for a while yet.
While there are areas of strength in the Australian economy (the labour market is strong, business confidence is high and consumer sentiment is lifting, strong commodity prices are good for export income), the low inflation and wages backdrop, risks around home prices and high household debt and the high Australian dollar all indicate that it’s still too early for the RBA to start raising interest rates. We remain of the view that the RBA won’t start lifting rates until late this year, starting with a 0.25% rate rise.