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UPDATE 5-Oil jumps 5 percent on prospects for OPEC output cut

Published 30/11/2016, 09:00 pm
Updated 30/11/2016, 09:00 pm
© Reuters.  UPDATE 5-Oil jumps 5 percent on prospects for OPEC output cut

* Iraq, Iran both say optimistic deal will be reached

* Oil to rise above $50 in case of deal -analysts

* Could fall towards $40 if deal falls through

* U.S. oil industry could gain from OPEC cut (Updates with comment, refreshes prices)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Oil jumped more than 5 percent on Wednesday, after the Saudi oil minister said an agreement among OPEC members on cutting output was close, putting the price on course for its biggest one-day move since April.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose $2.72 on the day to $49.10 per barrel by 0935 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $2.43 to $47.66 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries met at 0900 GMT on Wednesday at its headquarters in Vienna to discuss terms of a potential deal to cut production in an effort to prop up prices that have fallen by more than half since 2014 due to oversupply.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said he believed the market's fundamentals were moving in the right direction, but he believed the group was "getting close to a deal". extent of the (price) move shows no one wants to miss the boat. There must be a general consensus that there will be a cut, whether it's going to be bullish, I don't know, but it's the domino effect," PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said.

An Iraqi delegate on Wednesday said that some form of agreement would be reached, and Iran's oil minister also said he was optimistic. said markets were jittery, and that prices could swing sharply in either direction depending on developments in Vienna.

Oil on Tuesday fell by nearly 4 percent on disputes between Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq regarding details of the planned cut. at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Barclays (LON:BARC), and ANZ agree that oil prices will quickly rise above $50 per barrel should OPEC come to an agreement. Without a deal, the consensus is for a fall to the low $40s. and Iraq are resisting pressure from Saudi Arabia to curtail production, making it hard for the group to reach an agreement on output.

OPEC, which accounts for a third of global oil production, reached a preliminary agreement in Algiers in September to cap output around 32.5-33 million barrels per day versus the current 33.64 million bpd to prop up prices.

One of OPEC's biggest concerns is that by cutting output it will simply cede market share to non-OPEC rivals.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ GRAPHIC-OPEC's market share struggle

http://tmsnrt.rs/2cWq5NN GRAPHIC-OPEC's dwindling spare capacity

http://tmsnrt.rs/2g7oeps GRAPHIC: U.S. shale costs falling

http://tmsnrt.rs/2fO4b17

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